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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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Applied Materials (AMAT) hit a record high on upbeat sales forecasts. Arista Networks (ANET) is rising on AI networking demand. Nvidia (NVDA) is indirectly tapping debt markets via "Tracked Capital" to lease data centers. While "software" is being sold off due to disruption fears (see above), the "picks and shovels" of AI (Hardware, Semis, Networking) are seeing confirmed order flow. The capex spend is real and accelerating. LONG the AI Infrastructure layer. Over-saturation of supply or a sudden cut in Big Tech capex spending. |
Bloomberg Markets
US CPI Fuels Fed Wagers, US Inflation Comes I...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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"Dip buyers are rushing in to snap up Bitcoin, Ethereum... Coinbase, Circle, and Robinhood are among names drawing attention." Sentiment in the crypto sector is shifting to "bottoming out." When high-beta assets like COIN and HOOD rally alongside the underlying tokens, it signals renewed retail and institutional risk appetite. LONG the Crypto ecosystem as a momentum trade. Regulatory crackdowns or a "risk-off" macro shift (e.g., recession fears). |
Bloomberg Markets
US CPI Fuels Fed Wagers, US Inflation Comes I...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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Shares of real estate services companies CBRE and JLL are rising. This movement suggests a counter-intuitive strength in commercial real estate services, possibly driven by the need for data center build-outs (AI infrastructure) or a stabilization in broader transaction volumes. LONG Real Estate Services as a derivative play on the "return to activity" in physical assets. Commercial real estate valuations collapsing further due to office vacancies. |
Bloomberg Markets
US CPI Fuels Fed Wagers, US Inflation Comes I...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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Rivian reported better-than-expected Q4 metrics and its "first-ever annual gross profit." Achieving gross profit is a critical inflection point for EV manufacturers, signaling they have moved from "cash burn concept" to "viable business model." This fundamentally changes the valuation framework for the stock. LONG on the fundamental turnaround and profitability milestone. Production scaling issues or waning overall EV demand. |
Bloomberg Markets
US CPI Fuels Fed Wagers, US Inflation Comes I...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Q4 comp sales +5.7% (beating 3.76% est). CEO states "value leadership is working" and they are "gaining market share as consumers change their spending habits." In a high-inflation/high-rate environment, the consumer doesn't stop eating out completely; they trade down. McDonald's is capturing the flight from fast-casual/sit-down dining. The beat confirms they are the primary beneficiary of consumer austerity. LONG. A defensive fortress in a weakening consumer tape. Continued margin pressure if input costs rise faster than menu price hikes. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Little Changed as Yields Climb on Stro...
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Feb 11, 2026
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AVOID
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Stock down 25% (biggest plunge since 1999). Holiday results missed estimates; issued a weak 2026 forecast for lower profit. This is the inverse of the McDonald's trade. Discretionary spending on physical goods (toys) is evaporating. The massive miss indicates a loss of pricing power and a consumer that is tapped out on non-essentials. AVOID. This is a "falling knife" with fundamental demand destruction. Potential acquisition target at depressed valuations. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Little Changed as Yields Climb on Stro...
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Feb 11, 2026
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WATCH
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Shares down 8.8% on lower profit due to crypto decline. However, CEO Vlad Tenev claims they are at the "beginning of a prediction market supercycle." The stock is trading on current crypto volumes (weak), but the management thesis is pivoting to "Prediction Markets" (betting on outcomes). If they can regulatory capture this space, it decouples them from pure crypto beta. WATCH. Wait for the crypto-related selling to stabilize to see if the "Prediction Market" narrative gains traction with users. Regulatory crackdowns on prediction markets (gambling laws). |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Little Changed as Yields Climb on Stro...
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